Figure 2.8.6

Projected annual smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) in the US, 2020-2025

Smoking attributable deaths remain consistent, and the annual projected smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) continue to be high, despite a reduction in smoking rates, given population growth and the lag between smoking exposure and disease risk.

However, a reduction in SADs is expected starting in 2030, as the impact of the reduced rates of cigarette smoking are seen. Among those who formerly smoked, the total SADs continue to rise until a small steady decline is expected to be seen starting in 2032, given past exposure and the growing number of individuals who formerly smoke. The SADs for individuals who currently smoke are projected to decline earlier as fewer individuals are currently smoking than in previous years.

Source

Le, T.T., Méndez, D. and Warner, K.E., 2024. New Estimates of Smoking-Attributable Mortality in the US From 2020 Through 2035. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 66(5), pp.877-882.