Map 1.1.3

State-Level Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Projections to 2035

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Though cigarette smoking prevalence is predicted to decrease nationally, only 4 states (California, Colorado, Hawaii, and Utah) will likely achieve prevalence that is significantly below 5% by 2035.

Footnote

Model estimated observed prevalence for each US state from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) surveillance system 1992-2022 with estimated prevalence in 2035 from projections using the best fit model of the observed data. To improve the precision of the estimates, states were grouped into tertiles using the average smoking prevalence across surveys from 1992 to 2001.

Source

  • US Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS); Stone MD, Pierce JP, Dang B, et al. State and Sociodemographic Trends in US Cigarette Smoking With Future Projections. JAMA Netw Open. 2025;8(4):e256834